Blackjack Odds And Probability Guide

Seems that gambling outcome is always a matter of luck. Well, this statement is fair. But not exactly, so a certain RTP number takes place, while players can increase their chances when learning the strategy properly (that works only in the games where maths calculations can influence the result). And blackjack is right the game where you can count on your maths skill, while the game’s RTP is much higher than the percentage in most other games. 

Well, what’s blackjack house edge and why do players need this information?

History of the Odds: Where Everything Comes From

Julian Braun and John Scarne were outstanding mathematicians who used to deal with probability and odds. Their works have influenced loads of directions, and blackjack is not an exception. These men have proved that particular actions can influence the outcome and it can be predicted (though not 100%) due to certain formulas and surveys.

Probability: What’s That?

Maths is a science that leaves its mark in all areas. That’s why gambling is also related to it. So probability is an issue many of us remember from the school lessons. And if you don’t, no need to worry: here is a description of what it is and how it works.

Interesting to know: likelihood of events is what probability is studying.

The basic formula to find out probability is an easy thing: you divide the number of ways of the events you are interested in can happen by the total number of the events. 

Sounds a bit complicated? Then let’s take a look at the examples, so they are much easier to understand.

1. Want to roll a two on a dice? There are 6 possible outcomes, while a two is only one of them. So you get ⅙
2. When flipping a coin, you want to find out the probability of getting heads. If we talk about only one round, there is only 1 chance to get it, while the total number of available outcomes is 2. That’s why the probability is 1/2 (0,5 or 50%).
3. When it comes to blackjack, the probability to get the Ace of spades, for example, is 1/52 (when you are playing with 1 deck, of course).

Pay attention: it’s always a number between 0-1. When it’s 0, the event will never happen (for instance, you can’t roll an eight on a dice, so 0/6=0).

Probability vs Odds: Are They Different?

When it comes to blackjack odds, everything is a bit different. You get more exact results, so the approach of calculating chances: now the number of ways the event can’t happen is compared with the number of the possible ones. Meet some more examples.

1. When you want to roll a two on a dice, you have 1 possible event and 5 impossible ones (when there are 6 sides on your dice, of course). So your odds are 5 to 1. 
2. When you need 1 card of a 52-card deck, your odds are 1 to 51.

Why is this info useful? Well, odds of winning blackjack, as well as with any other game, help to estimate your chances and decide whether to play with high or low stakes (or even not to play at all).

House Edge: What’s That?

This percentage is also called a casino’s advantage, so visitors can’t win 100%, and the difference is what the casino earns. In blackjack, it’s mostly 0,5-1%, while players win 99-99,5%. So when you don’t ignore blackjack tips and the basic strategy, your chances are extremely high and you can also become a «wizard of odds» in blackjack.

As for online software, games always have the RTP according to which the winnings are calculated. This number is also high and players can learn it in the game’s menu or on the provider’s website.

Hourly Loss/Win: What to Expect

Of course, these calculations are approximate, but you can still estimate the average loss/win per hour, so it’s a good way to find out whether the strategy is OK by looking at the results of it being used for a long time. Let’s take a look at two examples.

Blackjack Odds at Various Situations

As the rules of the game can vary, various details like blackjack insurance can influence the results, increasing the house edge or making it lower (depends on your actions). So here are the cases when the odds can vary.

Different Rules

Seems to be a trifle, but each tiny detail can slowly increase the house edge, making it higher and higher (that is not good for the player). Especially when we are talking about several kinds of the game (bet the set blackjack) or even other games (Twenty-One).

So always find out the rules before getting to play and try to avoid 6 to 5 payouts: only 3 to 2 blackjack. 

Missing Cards

The thing is that gamblers who can count cards know that you always have more chances to win when dealing with high cards, while low-value ones can’t promise you a lot. That’s why you should play with low bets or even stop playing when high cards are out. And this blackjack odds table can explain the thing: that’s how the house edge changes when the following cards are removed from the deck.

As you can see, when the high cards are out, the house edge rapidly increases. While the removed low cards mean that the high cards are left, and that’s good for players.

Remember: we are talking about playing with 1 deck now, so when your dealer is using several decks, everything should be recalculated.

Things to Increase Your Odds

Would like not only to learn how the percentage is calculated, but influence your outcome a bit? All right, here are some ideas.

• Blackjack betting strategy is always what you need: learn the strategy to understand how everything works and to know how to behave in different cases.
• Try to avoid blackjack side bets (the additional ones), so yes, they promise a whole bunch of benefits, but you are taking big risks and the house edge can come up to 15-17% this way.
• Using certain software is also a thing: various calculators and apps can help a lot. For example, Oddsmonkey blackjack strategy will be based on the calculations of this online tool. Just remember that you can practice yourself or do it online, so counting electronic devices are prohibited at the casinos. 
• While the devices aren’t permitted at the real-life casinos, you can exchange them with the printable charts where the basic strategy is applied.

And remember that every player can rely on the strategy he (or she) finds more appropriate, even when it’s a strategy of your own, just to work. So when discussing blackjack betting strategy, Reddit and other social settings can come in handy.

FAQ: Common Questions and Answers to Them

Meet the things you should know about this issue, so gamblers are usually interested in these issues and here comes the FAQ with the detailed explanations.

Are probability and odds similar?

Actually, no, they are not. These things are different, and here comes an example. When you want to roll a three on a 6-sided dice, the probability is ⅙, while the odds are 5 to 1. And the same thing is with any other game.

What are the odds of winning blackjack against a dealer?

This rate depends on loads of details, so you should take into account whether the dealer hits or stands at soft 17, whether you can surrender or double after splitting. However, the average house edge in blackjack is about 1%, so your chances to win are always big.

What is a house edge in blackjack?

It’s the percentage that the casino earns, it’s usually 0,5-1%, while the RTP for a gambler is 99-99,5%. It’s one of the highest percentages in gambling, so other games (like slots) usually have about 95-97%.

What does insurance mean on blackjack?

It’s a kind of a side bet: you are offered to make it when the dealer’s up card is an Ace. When the dealer doesn’t have a blackjack, you lose this sum, while when the dealer does, you win this bet (mostly, at 2 to 1 odds).

When to buy insurance in blackjack?

This option is offered each time the dealer has an Ace as an up card. But experts hardly ever recommend to do that, so risks are rather high and the attempt is not so worthy.